BloggingStocks

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Motorola's worth will out

Jim Cramer — 2008-06-24T09:09:00+00:00

Filed under: Deals, Yahoo! (YHOO), Motorola (MOT), Market matters, Sprint Nextel Corp (S), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), U.S. Steel (X), Nucor Corp (NUE), Stocks to Buy, Cramer on BloggingStocks

From TheStreet.com Network

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the slide has to end somewhere -- eventually, we'll see a bid.

Is someone having a margin call? That's what I keep thinking as I watch the sickening slide in Motorola's (NYSE: MOT) (Cramer's Take) stock. How can Motorola go down so much? This is a company with a lot of money and some businesses that are doing excellently. It has great existing contracts with telcos.

But someone sells it and sells it hard every day. It almost feels that Carl Icahn has a margin call, post-Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) (Cramer's Take), or he has to sell MOT to fund Yahoo!, and that doesn't seem right.

Otherwise, how can we explain the endless selling? Sure, as Piper said yesterday, they are losing share in America, but does anyone think this company is going away? Does anyone think this company is some sort of regional bank with its destiny completely out of its hands, that reliance on housing coming back will determine its viability? This is only a $16 billion company now with sales that are almost twice that?

At some price this one is going to get a takeover bid. It has fundamental worth.

To sell it down here makes no sense at all if you ask me.

But then again, I thought at $8 or $9 there was worth. I just don't believe this company is going away.

It is entirely possible that what might be going on here is the desire to show that you own none of the worst cell phone handset maker. It may also be a sign that the value people are at last running out of money. But it has a feel of Sprint (NYSE: S) (Cramer's Take) here, arriving at some level that, at last, might be as low as it might be able to go without the chatter that someone else wants to bring out the value.

Random musings: Kudos to the Stockpickr poster who caught my error on "Street Signs" yesterday. Goldman (NYSE: GS) (Cramer's Take) wants out of Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take) and in to U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take). I disagree with that, as NUE is cheaper at these prices, although the product portfolio of X has improved mightily. ... The new iron ore prices out of China boosted Cleveland Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) (Cramer's Take) and are a reminder that a $150 price tag for oil doesn't mean too much for those willing to almost double the price they just paid for iron ore.

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs.

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Analyst upgrades: SHPGY, JCP, VISN, NOV, X, APOL

Eric Buscemi — 2008-06-23T11:30:00+00:00

Filed under: Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Penney (J.C.) (JCP), U.S. Steel (X)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Shire Plc, J.C. Penney and VisionChina Media were today's noteworthy upgrades:

Goldman upgraded shares of Shire Plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY) to Buy from Neutral on expectations for share gains in the second half of 2008 following the launch of Vyvanse in adults. Goldman also added the stock to the Conviction Buy List.
Deutsche Bank raised J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP) to Buy from Hold after channel checks indicated recent sales trends have improved. The firm finds the risk/reward compelling at current levels with a $46 target.
Oppenheimer upgraded shares of VisionChina Media (NASDAQ: VISN) to Outperform from Perform following the recent pullback, after channel checks indicated the company is seeing greater traction with larger advertising clients.

OTHER UPGRADES:

National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) was upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform.
Goldman added US Steel (NYSE: X) to the Conviction Buy List.
Apollo Group (NASDAQ: APOL) was upgraded at ThinkPanmure to Buy from Accumulate.

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Steel Dynamics (STLD): Share price defines bullish 'flag'

Larry Schutts — 2008-06-18T11:15:00+00:00

Filed under: Good news, U.S. Steel (X), Nucor Corp (NUE), Technical Analysis, Stocks to Buy

Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) is the fifth largest producer of carbon steel products in the United States. The firm operates five mid-western electric-furnace mini-mills, producing merchant bars, engineered bar products, wide-flange beams, rails, and flat-rolled steels. It also runs six fabrication facilities, making joists, girders, and decking for non-residential construction projects. Steel scrap is processed at 42 locations in the eastern U.S. and Canada. Nucor (NYSE: NUE) and U. S. Steel (NYSE: X) are major competitors.

The company raised its second quarter outlook last week, citing "stronger than anticipated shipping volume and selling values for flat-rolled steel products and stronger volume and margins in recycling." Management predicted Q2 EPS of 90-95 cents (80-90 cent prior estimate, 89 cent Street consensus).

The stock popped into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern on the news. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers recommend the issue with one "strong buy", three "buys" and seven "holds". The STLD P/E ratio (17.70), Price to Sales ratio (1.37), Price to Cash Flow ratio (12.45), Sales Growth rate (119.74%), EPS Growth rate (44.00%), Operating Margin (14.24%), Return on Assets (12.14%), Return on Investment (15.43%), Return on Equity (30.62%) and Revenue per Employee ($912.64k) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutional investors hold about 68% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 400 MidCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $16.81 and $40.50. A stop-loss of $33.75 looks good here. Note that management is expected to announce Q2 results on July 21st.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com. He does not hold positions in any of the stocks mentioned above.

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Barron's offers a survey of momentum plays in hot sectors

Eliza Popescu — 2008-06-17T15:56:00+00:00

Filed under: Newspapers, U.S. Steel (X), Commodities, Oil, Stocks to Buy

With crude oil prices soaring, shares in coal and fertilizer companies have also been climbing for the past year. Barron's offers a survey of the momentum plays, pointing out some opportunities and risks when investing in coal and fertilizer stocks.

Talking about risks, Barron's underlines the fact that it can be difficult for investors to put their hard earned money into a stock that is already trading near its highs. But as they say, the trend is up unless proven otherwise, and we might take this into account when picking our trades. For example, back in April, it looked like Mosaic Co. (NYSE: MOS) was facing technical weakness, but this did not last long and the company was able to rebound.

Now let's take a took at the coal sector. Data shows that the Dow Jones U.S. coal index gas gained more than 50% for the past year. While James River Coal Co. (NASDAQ: JRCC) has quadrupled this year, Peabody Energy Corp. (NYSE: BTU) has been seeing some weakness, and this might be a sign that the sector could face tough times ahead. The first concern tied to supply and demand appeared for Peabody when we began to notice that volume on rally days slipped, while volume on declining days has increased.

The steel sector has also been under pressure this year, with the Dow Jones U.S. steel index moving below its January trend line. To get a clear picture of these events take a look at United States Steel (NYSE: X) chart from Barron's article.

So for the moment, the fertilizer, coal and steel sectors are seen as nice potential investment areas, with their own risks and advantages. As for me, I would say there is always a big risk whenever you want to make money.

Eliza Popescu is a financial writer for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

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US Steel (X) boosted by updated Nucor outlook

Brent Archer — 2008-06-05T13:35:00+00:00

Filed under: Major movement, Forecasts, Good news, Industry, U.S. Steel (X), Nucor Corp (NUE), Options, Technical Analysis

US Steel (NYSE: X) shares are trading higher after competitor Nucor (NYSE: NUE) raised its earnings outlook for its upcoming second-quarter earnings. The previous forecast of 1.55 to 1.60 was lifted by 20 cents to 1.75 to 1.80. Analysts were looking for 1.69 and an upside surprise by NUE should signal good things for X as well. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on X.

After hitting a one-year low of $74.41 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $185.55 last month. X opened this morning at $177.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $175.25 and a high of $182.22. As of 12:55, X is trading at $183.10, up 9.88 (5.7%). The chart for X looks bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $140 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just seven weeks as long as X is above $140 at July expiration. US Steel would have to fall by more than 23% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

X hasn't been below $140 since March and has shown support around $170 recently. This trade could be risky if the stock has risen too quickly and has a correction, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at $150, where it formed a bottom in May.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in X or NUE.

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Option Update: Nucor and US Steel share prices near record high

Paul Foster — 2008-05-16T09:47:00+00:00

Filed under: U.S. Steel (X), Nucor Corp (NUE), Options

Nucor (NYSE: NUE) closed at $81.44 Thursday. NUE is a manufacturer and marketer of steel products. NUE overall option implied volatility of 42 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

US Steel (NYSE: X) closed at $176.61. CIBC World has a $175 price target on X. X overall option implied volatility of 48 is near its 26-week of 51 average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Earthquake recovery can change China

Jim Cramer — 2008-05-14T09:30:00+00:00

Filed under: China, Market matters, U.S. Steel (X), United Technologies (UTX), BHP Billiton Ltd ADR (BHP), Freep't McMoRan Copper (FCX), Commodities, Stocks to Buy, Cramer on BloggingStocks

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that rebuilding from natural disasters can alter the growth picture for a country.

Is it Katrina all over again? Or is it bigger? Much bigger? That's what I am thinking about this Chinese earthquake.

Katrina distorted the U.S.'s growth pattern for more than a full year. The raw materials, the effort, the work, the reconstruction affected businesses from small-scale retail to refining and infrastructure.

We don't really know how China works, although a lot of people tell us they do. To me, the Chinese are always a day away from revolution or civil war and the trick of the government is to stay one step ahead of the posse. (Chinese hands will dispute that, but you have to appreciate that it takes a special skill to be wrong for more than a century and still maintain credibility.)

That means massive reconstruction: bricks, lumber, cement, steel and all the trimmings. Massive imports, not controlled by the Chinese and their little negotiation games like they play with iron and steel and coal. Just full-bore buying and something that could take growth for China back to the levels that everyone thought it couldn't absorb without more inflation.

I know that it is simplistic to think that we will get our fair share of orders here, but just like we didn't expect the price of chicken to be moved dramatically by ethanol, there is only so much chicken feed to go around. This could stimulate another round of price increases for building materials like steel (U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take)) and all that goes into it (Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE: CLF) (Cramer's Take), Vale (NYSE: RIO) (Cramer's Take), BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) (Cramer's Take)). Everything from elevators -- United Technologies (NYSE: UTX) (Cramer's Take) -- to fire prevention to copper wiring, which is why I started buying Freeport (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take) again yesterday.

The theme gets new life from this earthquake which, when the smoke clears, will be revealed as the largest reconstruction project the world may have ever seen.

The groups seem overextended, as overextended as the financials are crushed.

But it doesn't matter. The raw materials remain in short supply, the ships in short supply, and the situation is combustible like Katrina, and could add more than a percentage to Chinese growth.

Worth playing.

RELATED LINKS:

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. At the time of publication, Cramer was long FCX.

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Before the bell: MRK, BP, ADM, MA, CFC, AAPL ...

Melly Alazraki — 2008-04-29T08:25:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Earnings reports, Apple Inc (AAPL), XM Satellite Radio (XMSR), Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Avon Products (AVP), CBS Corp 'B' (CBS), MasterCard Inc'A' (MA), Corning Inc (GLW), Countrywide Financial (CFC), BP p.l.c. ADS (BP), Merck and Co (MRK), U.S. Steel (X), Valero Energy (VLO)

Before the bell: Street awaits Fed (V, DB, GM)

Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) shares are dropping over 8% in premarket trading after it said its cholesterol pill Cordaptive failed to win approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, less than a week after it was recommended for marketing in the European Union. While Merck intends to submit more data to the FDA, it is unclear it will succeed given even some European doctors said more research is needed on one of the drug's main components safety.

Who said higher oil prices aren't good? If you ask Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) and BP (NYSE: BP), high oil prices are fantastic as the two oil giants beat forecasts when posting quarterly earnings Tuesday, reporting that net income, excluding unrealized gains from changes in inventory values, rose 12% to a record $7.8 billion and 48% to $6.6 billion respectively. Shell shares are climbing 5.7% in premarket trading and BP's over 4.8% as it seems investors think oil above $100 a barrel is here to stay.

Archer Daniels Midland Co. (NYSE: ADM), the world's largest grain processor, said third-quarter profit rose 42% to $517 million or 80 cents per share, topping analyst estimates of 69 cents per share, as it traded more grains and crushed more soybeans. Sales climbed 64% to $18.7 billion. Seems that being in agriculture lately is a positive and ADM shares are rising 3.75% in premarket trading.

We're still in the midst of earnings season, and today is a big day:

A day after Visa reported its first quarterly results, posting considerable growth, beating estimates but still disappointing investors, MasterCard (NYSE: MA) just reported results minutes ago. From first glance it seems that MA also handily beat expectations of earnings or $1.99 per share.

Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) is projected to post earnings of 2 cents a share in the first quarter, Valero (NYSE: VLO) -- 29 cents a share, CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS) -- 33 cents a share, Corning (NYSE: GLW) -- 42 cents a share, Avon (NYSE: AVP) -- 43 cents a share and United States Steel (NYSE: X) -- $1.84 a share.

And good news everybody. Yes, I know Canada is a small market, despite its large land mass, but it's my market and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone isn't here yet. Despite being the U.S.'s neighbor, the iPhone went to Europe first and only today it was announced by Rogers Communications (NYSE: RCI) it has reached an agreement with Apple to bring the iPhone to Canada later this year. Always later ...

XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) today announced that it has postponed its 2008 annual meeting of stockholders to a date when it has further information relating to its pending merger with SIRIUS Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI).

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Earnings highlights: Ford, Boeing, McDonald's, PepsiCo, JetBlue and others

Trey Thoelcke — 2008-04-27T11:40:00+00:00

Filed under: Earnings reports, Starbucks (SBUX), PepsiCo (PEP), Ford Motor (F), McDonald's (MCD), Halliburton (HAL), Boeing Co (BA), Hershey Co (HSY), Coach Inc (COH), ConocoPhillips (COP), Yum Brands (YUM), duPont(E.I.)deNemours (DD), Lockheed Martin (LMT), U.S. Steel (X), UAL Corp (UAUA), Dow Chemical (DOW), JetBlue Airways (JBLU), Goodyear Tire and Rubber (GT), Delta Air Lines (DAL)

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AXL) reported a strike-related Q1 loss.
Arch Coal Inc. (NYSE: ACI) Q1 profit tripled on increased demand and higher prices.
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) posted better-than-expected earnings despite Dreamliner delays.
Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) better-than-expected quarter didn't impress Jim Cramer.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) reported Q1 earnings and revenue above analysts' forecasts.
Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE: DAL) reported a big loss on a one-time charge and fuel costs.
Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW) posted a smaller-than-forecast profit drop and predicted a good Q2.
EI DuPont de Nemours & Co. (NYSE: DD) Q1 earnings rose 26% but missed expectations.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) surprised Wall Street by swinging to a profit in the first quarter.
Goodyear Tire and Rubber Co. (NYSE: GT) easily surpassed analyst estimates for the first quarter.
Halliburton Co. (NYSE: HAL) Q1 earnings and revenue rose due to international growth.
Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) profit fell but was in line with analysts' expectations.

JetBlue Airways Corp. (NASDAQ: JBLU) reported a narrower-than-expected loss in the first quarter.
Lockheed-Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) posted solid Q1 results and raised its full-year outlook.
McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD) easily beat Q1 estimates due to gains overseas.
Northwest Airlines Corp. (NYSE: NWA) reported a larger-than-expected loss due to fuel costs.
PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP) posted solid Q1 results that were merely inline with expectations.
Pepsi Bottling Group (NYSE: PBG) earnings were flat, but beat Wall Street expectations by a penny.
Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. (NYSE: POT) posted strong results on strong demand and price hikes.
Sonoco Products Co. (NYSE: SON) reported better-than-expected Q1 results and revised guidance.
Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) preliminary Q2 results were lower than analyst's expected.
3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) beat earnings expectations and reaffirmed its guidance.
UAL Corp. (NASDAQ: UAUA) posted a worse-than-expected Q1 loss on rising fuel prices.
US Steel Corp. (NYSE: X) better-than-expected quarter didn't impress Jim Cramer.
Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) Q1 profits soared on overseas strength, and raised its guidance.

Also, Jim Cramer discusses "crummy lenders" and Jonathan Berr wonders if Ford's turnaround is for real. Joseph Lazzaro considers Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) as a barometer of the economy. One analyst thinks financials may have hit bottom and it may be time to buy, and Jon Ogg looks at what short sellers are making of tech stocks. Ted Allrich discusses what to sell/what to buy.

Upcoming results to watch for include Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN), CBS Corp. (NYSE: CBS), Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC), U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X), Office Depot (NYSE: ODP), General Motors (NYSE: GM), Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT), Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX), Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), and Chevron (NYSE: CVX).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

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Market highlights for next week: Two-day FOMC meeting

Eric Buscemi — 2008-04-25T16:37:00+00:00

Filed under: Earnings reports, Forecasts, Conventions and conferences, Annual meetings, Starbucks (SBUX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Comcast Cl'A' (CMCSA), Verizon Communications (VZ), BP p.l.c. ADS (BP), Merck and Co (MRK), U.S. Steel (X), Genentech Inc (DNA), Tyson Foods'A' (TSN), Akamai Technologies (AKAM), Kraft Foods'A' (KFT)

Monday, April 28

PDUFA date for Genentech, Inc. (NYSE: DNA) and Roche Holding Ltd. (OTC: RHHBY)'s supplemental Biologics License Application for Herceptin for label expansion to include AC followed by docetaxel in treatment of adjuvant HER2+ breast cancer.
PDUFA date for Shire plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY) and New River Pharma's supplemental New Drug Application for Vyvanse (NRP-104) treatment of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disordre, or ADHD, in adult patients 18-55 years old; the drug is already approved for pediatric ADHD ages 6-12.
Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) to report Q earnings; conference call at 8:30am.
Tyson Foods, Inc. (NYSE: TSN) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 9:00am.

Tuesday, April 29

Two-day FOMC meeting beginning at 8:30am.
PDUFA date for Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK)'s New Drug Application for Cordaptive (MK-0524A) adjunctive therapy to diet for treating elevated LDL Cholesterol, low HDL Cholesterol and elevated triglycerides levels.
PDUFA date for Sucampo Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ: SCMP)'s supplemental New Drug Application for dose of 8mg treatment of Irritable Bowel Syndrome with Constipation; already approved for Chronic Idiopathic Constipation at 24ug dosage.
BP plc (NYSE: BP) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 10:15am.
United States Steel Company (NYSE: X) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 2:00pm.

Wednesday, April 30

Second day of two-day FOMC meeting.
Kraft Foods, Inc. (NYSE: KFT) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 8:00am.
Akamai Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKAM) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 4:30pm.
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 5:00pm.

Thursday, May 1

PDUFA date for Discovery Laboratories, Inc. (NASDAQ: DSCO). On Nov 16, 2007, FDA established May 1, 2008 as its target date to complete its review of Surfaxin New Drug Application for prevention of Respiratory Distress Syndrome in premature infants.
Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 8:30am.
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 11:00am.

Friday, May 2

SEC Advisory Committee to meet at 9:00am on Improvements to Financial Reporting.
PDUFA Date for The Medicines Company (NASDAQ: MDCO) New Drug Application, NDA for Cleviprex for treatment of Hypertension.
PDUFA Date for Akorn, Inc. (NASDAQ: AKRX) for Akten Ophthalmic Gel, an ocular anesthesia.

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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Coach and US Steel reflect supply and demand

Jim Cramer — 2008-04-23T09:10:00+00:00

Filed under: Earnings reports, Market matters, Coach Inc (COH), U.S. Steel (X), Cramer on BloggingStocks

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the different reactions to these earnings underscore the difference between two good quarters.

You have to contrast a Coach (NYSE: COH) (Cramer's Take) with a US Steel (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take) to get a sense about where this market is going.

First, the obvious -- there are too many Coach bags and bags of its ilk, and there isn't enough steel. Second, Coach couldn't pass on a price increase to save its life. Every price increase sticks for US Steel.

Third, on the Coach call where does Lew Frankfort -- who is great! -- want to expand? The U.S. Ouch! Worst market in the world. Saturated. No growth. Feeling poor.

Where does US Steel want to expand? Doesn't matter. The demand is so great it's really an issue of shipping, as CSX's (NYSE: CSX) (Cramer's Take) Michael Ward would tell you -- at least he told me last night on "Mad Money."

X has higher input costs across the board, but the demand is so great for its steel it doesn't even matter.

Meanwhile, Coach has a big increase in inventory, explained away in part by a dramatic yen appreciation -- actually makes sense when they walk you through it -- but otherwise explained by a macro environment that is just awful.

Now, here's the tough part: Both companies are buying back stock. Both companies believe in their stock. I ask myself, other than a lower-than-usual multiple, what is there to believe in in Coach? Why would this market come back anytime soon?

US Steel? It's got so much money it is hard-pressed to do anything else with it, although it is expanding. (As opposed to, say, AK Steel (NYSE: AKS) (Cramer's Take), which needs the money to pay down pensions.)

This contrast really is what's at the heart of why one stock goes up on a better-than-expected quarter and one goes down.

Supply and demand. Too many Coach bags, not enough steel plate.

Random musings: Hosting "Squawk" this morning, check it out.

RELATED LINKS:

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Early analyst calls (X) (PG)

Douglas McIntyre — 2008-04-17T07:54:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Intl Flavors/Fragr (IFF), Procter and Gamble (PG), U.S. Steel (X)

Citigroup downgraded US Steel (NYSE:X) from "buy" to "hold" according to Briefing.com. The financial news service also reports that Deutsche Bank downgrade Procter & Gamble (NYSE:PG) to "hold" from "buy"

International Paper (NYSE:IP) was cut to "neutral" from "outperform" at Credit Suisse according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reports that Intl Flavors & Fragrances (NYSE:IFF) was cut to "underweight" from "neutral" at JPMorgan.

Douglas A. McIntyre

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Piggybacking the pros: CGM Focus Fund

Zack Miller — 2008-04-13T16:10:00+00:00

Filed under: Mutual funds, U.S. Steel (X), Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT)

This market is tough. Pros and novices alike are having a tough time. Particularly in a down market, a market commentators like to call a ""stock picker's market," I find it illustrative to dig deeper into the holdings of those special professional money managers that have found a way to make a go of it.

Take the CGM Focus (CGMFX) fund. This fund consistently shows up at the top of 1-year, 3-year, and multi-year best performers. CGM Focus has returned on average 37% per year for the past five years. While this is absolutely no guarantee that it will continue to perform like this, fund manager Chuck Heebner seems to have the special sauce -- at least for now.

So, what has been so successful for the fund?

Commodity picks like fertilizer plays Potash (NYSE: POT) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) have been big positions and have been big winners. Steel plays like US Steel (NYSE: X) have performed very nicely for CGM as well.

Looking at what worked is somewhat like looking into a rear-view mirror. These gains were in the past. What's Heebner and team buying now?

In March, CGM Focus initiated some new positions. These include deep-water driller Transocean (NYSE: RIG). The fund also bought MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR), which supplies silicon wafers to the burgeoning solar power industry. Oil refiner Hess (NYSE: HES) was also added to the mix.

In times of trouble, it's sometimes useful to turn to those with some clarity.

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

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Cramer on BloggingStocks: We need one plan

Jim Cramer — 2008-04-09T08:50:00+00:00

Filed under: Market matters, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Washington Mutual (WM), U.S. Steel (X), Economic data, Deere and Co (DE), Freep't McMoRan Copper (FCX), Politics, Stocks to Buy, Stocks to Sell, Housing, Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), Recession

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says that until we have some clarity on the way out, we'll have a tough road ahead.

This is a confusing moment, for the same reason as always -- the darned mortgage market. Dueling plans seem destined to go nowhere while defaults continue to go up. We need something to stabilize the house price depreciation and someone to take the hit: FHA, Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take), Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take)? I don't care.

The president's plan sounds like it tries to address who should take the hit -- a little bit bank, a little bit government -- but it is piecemeal, as is everything that has been done about this issue.

I am and have been banking on an expanded FHA plan that would put the onus on that organization to do long, low-interest-rate loan guarantees. It is a simple plan, and I bet the government would make money from it. It would end the madness of trying to figure out how to deal with each one of these stopgappers.

Regardless, I think the confusion of dueling plans makes things tough going.

And we no doubt will revert to the coal/ag/nat gas trade until oil comes in at some point.

Which it doesn't look like it will.

So round up the usual suspects: Potash (NYSE: POT) (Cramer's Take), Apache (NYSE: APA) (Cramer's Take), Deere (NYSE: DE) (Cramer's Take), Monsanto (NYSE: MON) (Cramer's Take), U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take) and Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) (Cramer's Take)!

Random musings: There is no way this TPG infusion should value Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) above $10 -- the fact that there was an $8 takeunder on the table by JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM) (Cramer's Take) says that.

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Ignore random market noise and focus on lesser known names

Timothy Sykes — 2008-04-01T12:35:00+00:00

Filed under: Google (GOOG), Apple Inc (AAPL), U.S. Steel (X), Technical Analysis, Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Lehman Br Holdings (LEH), Bear Stearns Cos (BSC), Stocks to Buy

Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) this, Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) that, will Lehman Brothers Holdings (NYSE: LEH) follow Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) -- bleh, all hotly debated, all random market noise! Noise that you must learn to ignore.

The financial media -- envious of the fat profits generated by such entertainment-based businesses as World Wrestling Entertainment Inc (NYSE: WWE), Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE: LVS) and Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) -- has brainwashed you into believing that in order to make money in the stock market, you must keep up to date with every single headline and development in the business world. Hogwash!

I have no problem with financial entertainment, but I do take issue with all these media outlets making their content out to be useful to investors. I've repeatedly echoed this theme in articles like this and I don't expect this industry to change anytime soon, but I am going to keep preaching so you will better understand how low your chances of success are if you bet on the most popular -- hence the most efficient -- topics du jour. Unless you are George Soros or Warren Buffett or a few other wealthy elderly men, there is always somebody better informed and more intelligent than you are. Hence, you are always at a disadvantage.

To combat this, I stick to the much derided -- and highly inefficient -- world of microcaps and smallcaps where my competition is just a bunch of manipulators and suckers; meaning, I often have the upper hand.

And if that niche is too volatile for you -- as it is for those of you with heart conditions -- I suggest focusing on stocks breaking out of their trading ranges, or those making new highs. Yesterday, I highlighted 20 stocks, only five of which I thought looked worthwhile and today let's add three more stocks to that list. United State Steel Corporation (NYSE: X), Weatherford International (NYSE: WFT) and Illumina Inc (NASDAQ: ILMN), all of which are breaking out to new highs. If you keep your stop losses tight with charts like those, it's tough to go wrong.

Timothy Sykes writes the blog timothysykes.com, is a former hedge fund manager, star of the TV show Wall Street Warriors and author of the book, An American Hedge Fund: How I Made $2 Million as a Stock Operator & Created a Hedge Fund

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Early analyst calls: LEH, MCD ...

Douglas McIntyre — 2008-03-28T07:15:00+00:00

Filed under: Before the bell, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, McDonald's (MCD), U.S. Steel (X), Lehman Br Holdings (LEH)

Goldman Sachs has upgraded Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) from "hold" to "buy," according to MarketWatch. The financial website also reports that Morgan Stanley downgraded Ericsson AB (NASDAQ: ERIC) from "overweight" from "equal weight."

Merrill Lynch upgraded US Steel (NYSE: X) from "neutral" to "buy," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Morgan Stanley initiated McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) at "overweight."

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

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Cramer on BloggingStocks: The X factor

Jim Cramer — 2008-03-27T08:35:00+00:00

Filed under: Market matters, U.S. Steel (X), Nucor Corp (NUE), Reliance Steel and Aluminum (RS), Stocks to Buy, Cramer on BloggingStocks

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says U.S. Steel is a puzzle, and he ponders how to play it here.

U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take) presents the ultimate conundrum. It is hitting on all cylinders, courtesy of the incredible demand for steel domestically because of pipelines. And it is finally not suffering from dumped imports, because the dumpers are from countries growing so much faster than we are that they need all the steel they can get - China, for example, is struggling to build its own share instead of dumping.

John Surma, the CEO, has taken this once-great company right back to greatness with a rise from $9 to $127 in five years. That defies gravity. He has done that by cutting labor costs and growing the business, he has done it by emphasizing areas he can dominate and cutting ones he can t. And he has done it by taking advantage of the 30 bankruptcies in this sector, leaving him one of the few publicly traded companies left, including Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take), which is a great company, AK Steel (NYSE: AKS) (Cramer's Take), which levitates all of the time on takeover talk and then DOESN'T come in, and Reliance (NYSE: RS) (Cramer's Take), which is another fave of mine.

So what's the conundrum? How about the fact that it is at its 52-week high as we go into a recession, and when it goes down it goes down in frightening gobs that shock you and make you want to sell -- typically exacerbated, of course, by the lack of uptick rules that make it so the short-sellers quickly overcome the company's fairly aggressive $6 billion buyback. (It is unheard-of, by the way, to see a steel company with enough excess capital after the much-needed capital expenditures of the steel industry, but Surma, who is also a great guy, has been able to wrench enough capital to buy it back nicely.)

My advice: We are overbought, wait for the bears to raid it. But then buy it because the year seems to be baked in already. Oh, and compare that to the much-loved tech sector, which isn't even baked in for the second quarter.

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Consider U.S. Steel to strengthen your portfolio

Joseph Lazzaro — 2008-03-26T18:11:00+00:00

Filed under: Industry, U.S. Steel (X), Stocks to Buy

Readers of this space know that my investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. With the above in mind, U.S. Steel is worth a review.

U.S. Steel Group (NYSE: X) is the fifth largest steel producer in the world.

Analysts expect U.S. Steel's 2008 revenue to increase 13-17%, primarily stemming from acquisitions. Further, distributor inventory levels reached unsustainably low levels in 2007, in the interpretation of many analysts, and the replenishing in 2008 should benefit X.

Meanwhile, oil producer country tube/tube-related products should remain strong, and additional steel sector consolidation should help the sector regain modest pricing power. The Reuters F2008/F2009 EPS consensus estimates for X are $10.87/$11.52.

The risks? Analysts remain concerned about rising raw material costs. A sustained global economic slowdown would hurt U.S. Steel's results.

The First Call mean rating for X is: Buy [15 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $119 [high: $134, low: $90].

Stock Analysis: U.S. Steel is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from X's shares. Note: A safer position would involve waiting for X's shares to pull back to the $110-115 range, but they may not retreat to that level. I'd consider a Sell / Stop Loss at $83.

Disclosure: Lazzaro has no positions in stocks. In addition to private real estate holdings, he owns corporate and municipal bonds, and cash certificates of deposit.

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Analyst upgrades: GE, X, ABT, FNM, FRE and MITI

Eric Buscemi — 2008-03-20T10:52:00+00:00

Filed under: Analyst reports, Analyst upgrades and downgrades, General Electric (GE), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), U.S. Steel (X)

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Abbott Lab, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Micromet were today's noteworthy upgrades:

Wachovia upgraded Abbott Lab (NYSE: ABT) to Outperform from Market Perform as they believe their earlier concerns have been addressed. Past concerns included the potential for a negative outcome from the FDA panel on Xience and slowing prescription growth of lead drug Humira.
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) were raised to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette citing recent government actions to stabilize the mortgage markets.
Micromet (NASDAQ: MITI) was upgraded at RBC Capital to Outperform from Sector Perform as they expect positive data for its lead candidate, MT103, by year-end.

OTHER UPGRADES:

ThinkEquity raised Atheros Comm (NASDAQ: ATHR) to Buy from Accumulate.
Goldman upgraded US Steel (NYSE: X) to Buy from Neutral.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) was upgraded at Merrill to Buy from Neutral.

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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Three of five post-rally threats have lessened

Jim Cramer — 2008-03-19T08:42:00+00:00

Filed under: Major movement, Earnings reports, Apple Inc (AAPL), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Intel (INTC), Market matters, Citigroup Inc. (C), Advanced Micro Dev (AMD), Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), U.S. Steel (X), Nucor Corp (NUE), Commodities, Housing, Federal Reserve, Cramer on BloggingStocks, Recession

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says after big runs, bears present five points. The good news is that three of them have gotten a little better.

After big runs, you immediately hear the following:

1. Earnings are going to be terrible.
2. Commodity prices are out of control.
3. Housing prices are still falling.
4. Credit is a real problem and mortgages are hard to come by and at higher prices.
5. Someone else -- a bank, a credit firm, a monoline -- is about to fail.

Then we go down again. And we get frightened.

I don't have anything to counter the first one. I particularly think that tech earnings are going to be bad, like those out of Sony Ericsson. I think the only big winners in tech will be those who go up against big losers, and the wins won't be that great anyway: Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) over AMD (NYSE: AMD) (Cramer's Take), Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Cramer's Take) over everybody, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take) over everybody. The safe place is real-economy "Rest of World"ers like CSX (NYSE: CSX) (Cramer's Take) and U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take) and Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take), or the drug stocks with big overseas exposure.

Commodity prices? What can I say, oil's going to $125, where hopefully people will drill enough to find more, or we will switch to the much more abundant natural gas, which is why I like that group so much. The other commodity pressures are political. That's ethanol. Maybe a new regime will realize that, but this one's so awful about ethanol I can't bear it.

But three, four and five are changing a tad, which means that the rate of rate of change of the declines in housing and brokerage may be slowing. Or in non-calculus: Things aren't getting as bad as fast as they were.

In six more months the bulk of the resets of the heinous 2-and-28 mortgages -- encouraged if not pushed by Greenspan and Bernanke -- will have run their course. The maximum bulge of horrible resets starts right now, the second through fourth quarters of 2006, the housing peak. It's the worst part. But then it is over.

That matters. Because these resets are either causing people not to spend or they are causing people to abandon their homes. Both add to a recession, and the latter brings down the housing prices around the home, causing deflation.

In the last 48 hours though, we have seen a 75-basis-point cut in short rates, a deal reached where Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) can start lending and buying its own bonds back, and a dramatic decline in housing starts, again. Fewer homes, more abundant credit, at lower rates: That's how you attack the crisis head-on, and it is being done. I can't emphasize enough how important it is to get Fannie Mae to help lower rates as its mortgage paper is what's trading so crazily and keeping rates high. When you think that the facility that allows banks to swap bad bonds for cash for 28 days, you can see that the non-Treasury side of the ledger just got a lot better.

If you couple those positives with the idea that when, not if, banks fail we just call up a bigger, better bank and tell them they don't have to pay up for the equity and the Fed will practically guarantee the transaction's profits, we know that the systemic risk is now taken off the table for all but a collapse of Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), which is, unfortunately, still too big to fail.

All of these problems are going to linger. All of these problems haven't vanished. But all of them didn't get worse lately, in fact they got a little better.

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